Enhancing Emergency Supply Chain Resilience through Advanced Demand Forecasting, written by Abby Hodgkiss

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In the past five years, Australia has confronted a series of natural disasters and health crises, from bushfires to droughts, floods, and COVID-19. Effective responses to such emergencies require rapid and strategic actions to safeguard the community and wildlife, protect homes and businesses, and ensure the continuity of essential services like food, water, power, and communication. Achieving this demands a coordinated effort across federal, state, and local governments, in collaboration with private sector stakeholders.

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The National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework, established in 2018, forms the backbone of Australia's strategy to enhance resilience against increasingly frequent and severe natural disasters. Building a resilient response framework is inherently multidisciplinary, necessitating collaboration across logistics, supply chain management, policy, finance, engineering, and more. This article delves into the critical role of forecasting and machine learning in emergency response, emphasising how Advanced Demand Forecasting serves as a foundation for informed decision-making during crises.

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Natural Disasters and Emergencies in Australia

Australia has endured several significant natural disasters in recent years. The 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires scorched over 18 million hectares across multiple states, leading to widespread destruction of homes, wildlife, and agricultural land. Severe flooding in southeastern Queensland and northern New South Wales in early 2022 caused extensive infrastructure damage, while the COVID-19 pandemic created nation-wide challenges, notably shortages of critical medical supplies, and disrupted daily life.

These events have underscored the significant need for increasingly resilient emergency supply chains, capable of responding effectively to unpredictable and rapidly changing demand patterns during crises.

What is Advanced Demand Forecasting?

Advanced Demand Forecasting goes beyond copying historical data, but learns from it, by utilising sophisticated models that incorporate real-time and predictive data sources, such as weather forecasts, demographic trends, and even social media activity. These models employ advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms to provide more accurate and timely predictions, enabling organisations to anticipate future demand for critical resources and services more effectively.

For example, integrating live meteorological data into machine learning models allows government agencies to predict the trajectory, intensity, and impact of natural disasters like storms or bushfires. This predictive capability enables the estimation of necessary quantities of emergency supplies, optimal pre-positioning of resources, and precise timing for deployment. In addition to predictive analysis of the immediate threat, overlaying estimates of populations, infrastructure costs and more also enables impact estimates, including human injuries or displacement, or the cost to rebuild damaged infrastructure, which are used for forward planning at a government level, and prioritising resources at the time of a crisis (1).

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Advanced Demand Forecasting and the National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework

The National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework aims to shift the focus from reactive disaster response to proactive risk reduction, emphasising a unified national approach involving all sectors of society (2). It outlines four key national risk priorities:

      • Understand disaster risk: Ensure that meaningful risk information is freely shared and integrated into planning;

      •   Accountable decisions: Making decisions across sectors that either reduce or prevent disaster risk;

      • Enhanced investment: Invest in risk reduction to limit the future costs of disasters;

      • Governance, ownership and responsibility: Establish clear roles across all sectors and communities for reducing disaster risk.

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The importance of this framework is underscored by the significant economic impact of natural disasters, which have cost the Australian economy around $18 billion per year over the past decade, with projections indicating this figure could rise to $39 billion annually by 2050 without effective risk reduction strategies. Advanced Demand Forecasting directly supports these priorities by providing high accuracy data to inform decision-making, budgeting, and resource allocation. By enhancing the understanding of disaster risks through predictive analytics and incorporating impact estimates, organisations can make decisions that prioritise risk reduction and timely recovery.

Practical Implications

Implementing advanced demand forecasting can lead to:

      • Improved Responsiveness: Faster identification of emerging needs allows for quicker mobilisation of resources, reducing the time lag between when it is needed, and when it arrives.

      • Resource Optimisation: Accurate forecasts help in allocating resources efficiently by optimising stock distribution.

      • Enhanced Collaboration: Sharing forecasting data among various stakeholders fosters a unified approach to disaster response, ensuring that efforts are complementary rather than duplicative.

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The trace. Resilience and Emergency Response Framework

As a member of the Federal Government’s Management Advisory Services Panel, trace. is uniquely positioned to apply our expertise in Supply and Demand Management and Advanced Forecasting techniques to support the financial and economic analysis behind critical disaster resilience decisions. Our structured response framework aligns with the ISO 22301:2019 International Business Continuity Management Systems (BCMS) standard, ensuring that government agencies can maintain essential services during and after a disaster. The purpose of utilising the BCMS framework is “for organisations to plan, establish, implement, operate, monitor, review, maintain, and continually improve a documented management system to protect against, reduce the likelihood of, and ensure recovery from disruptive incidents (3).”

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Our approach includes:

      • Risk Identification: Support the Australian Government to identify all potential disasters, such as floods, bushfires, or droughts.

      • Impact Analysis and Prioritisation: Analysing the potential impact of these disasters from multiple perspectives—economic, social, environmental—and prioritising the most significant risks based on data-driven insights.

      • Continuity Strategies and Planning: Recommending tailored continuity strategies, risk mitigation activities, and response timeframes to ensure effective disaster recovery.

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How Trace Consultants Can Assist Government Agencies

As part of the Management Advisory Services Panel, trace. can now assist Australian Government Entities with the following services:

      • Benchmarking, economic, econometric, mathematical and financial modelling and analysis

      • Competition and market analysis

      • Economic advice

      • Regulatory and policy analysis

      • Data analysis

      • Business cases and cost benefit analysis

      • Supply and demand management and forecasting

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Benefits of Our Approach

By engaging trace. to assist with Supply and Demand Management and Forecasting, government agencies can achieve:

      • Improved Responsiveness: Faster identification of emerging needs allows for quicker mobilisation of resources, reducing the time lag between when it is needed, and when it arrives.

      • Cost Savings: Efficient resource allocation reduces unnecessary expenditures on surplus supplies and minimises losses due to shortages.

      • Data-Driven Decision Making: Leveraging robust data analytics supports transparent and accountable decisions, aligning with national priorities for disaster risk reduction.

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Next steps

The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters necessitate a proactive and data-driven approach to emergency management. Advanced Demand Forecasting offers a powerful tool for enhancing the resilience of emergency supply chains. This capability is crucial for safeguarding communities, reducing economic losses, and ensuring the continuity of essential services.

At trace., we are committed to helping government agencies adopt advanced Supply and Demand Management and Forecasting capabilities. With the right tools and strategic planning, we can collectively mitigate the economic and societal impact of future disasters.

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If your organisation is seeking to strengthen its preparedness and response capabilities, contact trace. today.

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Abby Hodgkiss

Consultant

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References

1: Merz, B. et al (2020). Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(4). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020rg000704.

2: Department of Home Affairs (2018). National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework Department of Home Affairs. Available at: https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf.

3: ISO The International Organization of Standardization (2019). ISO 22301:2019 Security and resilience — Business continuity management systems — Requirements. ISO. Available at: https://www.iso.org/standard/75106.html.

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The Essential Role of Supply Chain Management in Modern Public Service

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Government agencies' roles - whether in Canberra or at State level - have evolved considerably over time, with supply chain management taking a central position in contemporary public service delivery. These changes are palpable across a range of sectors—from healthcare to infrastructure, from education to defence.

Consider the example of public health, where efficient supply chain management is essential for everything from procuring essential medical equipment to the timely distribution of vaccines. Missteps can lead to severe repercussions, such as critical supply shortages during a health crisis. Hence, in-depth supply chain expertise is critical for predicting and mitigating potential challenges, facilitating effective planning, and ensuring the continuity of life-saving services.

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Harnessing the Power of Technology in Supply Chain Management

In the digital era, technology and technical skills are no longer optional—they're indispensable. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and advanced analytics have reshaped supply chain operations, making them more efficient, cost-effective, and transparent.

For instance, AI can be employed to anticipate potential disruptions based on historical data and current market trends, allowing government agencies to respond proactively. Blockchain, on the other hand, ensures unparalleled transparency and traceability within the supply chain, invaluable in scenarios like the distribution of public funds or assets. Advanced analytics can sift through mountains of data to generate actionable insights, guiding data-driven decision making.

Balancing Technological Innovation with Human Expertise

Despite the undeniable benefits of technological advancements, human expertise remains irreplaceable. Deep supply chain knowledge is critical to manoeuvre intricate logistics, understand nuanced procurement policies, and keep pace with global market trends.

For example, procurement in the public sector is subject to numerous regulations and requires significant expertise to ensure compliance while still achieving efficiency. Similarly, understanding global market trends is vital when sourcing materials or services from overseas suppliers. This human expertise is key to mitigating risks, maintaining operational excellence, and delivering value-for-money services to the public.

Increasing Importance of Supply Chain Expertise in the Department of Defence

Notably, one sector where the importance of supply chain expertise and technical skills is increasingly being recognised is the Department of Defence. Given rising geopolitical tensions and the increase in the complexity of military assets, supply chain management has become an integral part of defence strategy. The recent AUKUS pact, which involves the sharing of advanced technologies such as nuclear-powered submarines, has brought this into sharper focus.

The maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) supply chain capability, for instance, has emerged as a crucial aspect of the defence sector. Efficient management of the MRO supply chain ensures the readiness and operational efficiency of these complex military assets. It involves precise inventory control, meticulous tracking of components, and timely maintenance – all tasks that require deep supply chain expertise and advanced technical skills.

Moreover, the increasing preparedness requirements in light of geopolitical events have further underlined the need for a robust and efficient defence supply chain. It ensures that the defence forces can respond promptly and effectively to any threats or emergencies, underlining the need for the Department of Defence to continue investing in and strengthening its supply chain management capabilities.

Therefore, in a time of rising complexity of assets and increasing security challenges, the role of supply chain expertise within the Department of Defence has never been more critical. Recognising this importance and investing in developing this expertise is a strategic move towards maintaining national security and defence readiness.

Building a Resilient Future with Strong Supply Chain Capabilities

The future stability of Australian federal and state government agencies hinges on their adaptability and resilience. The ability to adapt to changes and continue to deliver essential public services in times of crisis, such as during natural disasters or pandemics, depends on the strength of their supply chain capabilities.

For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, government agencies with robust supply chain systems were able to rapidly procure and distribute medical supplies and vaccines, demonstrating the value of intertwining technological innovation with deep supply chain expertise.

The need for deep supply chain subject matter expertise and advanced technical skills within Australian federal and state governments is indispensable. Recognising this necessity and investing in these capabilities is a crucial step towards a more efficient, effective, and resilient public service delivery system.

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Contact us today, trace. your supply chain consulting partner.

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Modern Slavery Technology Partnership

As a part of our Australian and New Zealand offering, trace. is excited to announce our recent collaboration with Informed 365 – a global Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (‘ESG’) platform that provides Supply Chain Management, Ethical Sourcing, Modern Slavery and ESG Business Intelligence solutions for clients to collect, analyse data and report through advanced technology and automation.

Having worked with many industries and clients in Australia, New Zealand and internationally, including Property Council of Australia and a consortia of Australia’s Top 40 Law Firms – Informed 365 has proven experience in supporting organisations to achieve data transparency and make informed decisions.