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Australia's inflation cycle of 2022–2024 put supply chain costs under a level of pressure most organisations hadn't experienced in a decade. Freight rates tripled then crashed. Energy costs spiked. Supplier pricing increases arrived monthly. Input cost escalation flowed through to COGS, compressing margins and forcing difficult conversations about pricing, sourcing, and operational footprint.
By 2025, headline inflation has moderated — but the structural cost pressures haven't entirely unwound. Freight markets remain volatile. Energy costs are elevated relative to pre-2022 baselines. Many supplier pricing increases that landed during the inflationary period have proved sticky. And geopolitical uncertainty — including US tariff policy and the ongoing reconfiguration of global trade flows — continues to create cost volatility in offshore supply chains.
For Australian businesses, the question is no longer just "how do we respond to inflation?" It's "how do we build a supply chain cost management discipline that works in structurally more volatile conditions?" This article sets out the answer.
Why Inflation Hits Supply Chains Unevenly
Inflation is not a uniform phenomenon. Different cost categories in a supply chain are affected by different underlying drivers — and that means the response needs to be differentiated, not blanket.
Freight and logistics costs are driven by fuel prices, driver labour markets, and global shipping capacity dynamics. During 2021–2022, ocean freight rates from Asia to Australia increased by 400–600% before partially reverting. Domestic freight costs are driven primarily by fuel and driver availability — the latter being a structural constraint in Australia's transport labour market.
Commodity and raw material costs are driven by global commodity markets, exchange rates, and supply-demand dynamics specific to the commodity in question. A food manufacturer buying wheat, an industrial business buying steel, and a consumer goods business buying petrochemical-derived packaging are each facing a different inflation profile.
Labour costs in supply chain operations are driven by enterprise bargaining outcomes and award rate changes. The Fair Work Commission's annual minimum wage decisions have been materially higher in 2022–2024 than in prior years — with increases of 4.6%, 5.75%, and 3.75% respectively — and these flow through to operations and logistics labour costs.
Supplier pricing is a combination of all of the above — suppliers passing through their own cost increases, often with a mark-up — plus opportunism in markets where buyers have limited alternatives.
Understanding which cost drivers are most material in your supply chain is the starting point for an effective response.
The Wrong Response: Generic Cost-Cutting
The instinctive response to margin pressure is cost-cutting — reducing headcount, deferring capital investment, compressing supplier payment terms, and cutting service levels to reduce operational cost.
This response often makes the underlying problem worse.
Cutting supply chain headcount reduces the operational capability to manage complexity at exactly the moment when complexity is highest. Deferring infrastructure investment delays the efficiency gains that would actually improve the cost base. Compressing supplier payment terms damages relationships with suppliers whose goodwill is needed to navigate supply disruptions. Cutting service levels — reducing SKU range, extending lead times, increasing minimum order quantities — harms revenue and customer relationships.
The organisations that manage inflation well don't respond with generic cost-cutting. They respond with targeted, analytically grounded interventions in the specific cost categories where they have genuine leverage — and they protect supply chain capability while doing it.
Seven Inflation Management Levers That Work
1. Freight cost management. Freight is often the most volatile supply chain cost category and the one with the most immediate management levers. Effective responses include: competitive re-tendering of freight contracts in a falling market (ocean freight rates from Asia have come down significantly from 2022 peaks — organisations that locked in long-term contracts at peak rates may be paying above market), consolidation of freight volumes to improve carrier utilisation and reduce per-unit freight cost, modal shift from air to sea or road to rail where lead time allows, and renegotiation of fuel surcharge mechanisms to better track actual fuel costs rather than contractual escalators.
2. Supplier pricing governance. During inflationary periods, supplier pricing increase requests become frequent and the documentation underpinning them is often weak. An effective procurement function establishes a governance process: all supplier pricing increase requests are assessed against the specific input cost drivers the supplier cites, compared to market benchmarks, and approved only where the cost increase is demonstrably justified. This process alone — where it doesn't exist — typically identifies 15–25% of claimed increases as unsupported or overstated.
3. Specification review and value engineering. What is the business actually buying, and is the specification still appropriate? Inflationary periods create a legitimate opportunity to review product specifications, packaging standards, and service requirements — not to cut quality, but to remove over-specification that has accumulated over time. A large food manufacturer might find that packaging specification written five years ago is more rigorous than current quality standards require. An industrial services business might find that service level agreements were set conservatively and that actual requirements are less demanding than contracted.
4. Supplier base rationalisation. Fragmented spend across many suppliers produces fragmented buying power and high administrative cost. Consolidating spend to fewer, larger suppliers typically produces better pricing (volume leverage), better payment terms, and lower transaction costs. The consolidation case is strongest in indirect spend categories — facilities, consumables, professional services — where fragmentation tends to be highest.
5. Demand management and SKU rationalisation. Not all sales volume is profitable. In a high-cost environment, the cost of serving complex, low-volume demand — long-tail SKUs, small accounts with high service requirements, bespoke product variants — becomes harder to justify. SKU rationalisation and customer profitability analysis allow the business to focus supply chain capacity on the segments where it makes money, rather than spreading capacity equally across a portfolio that includes significant loss-making demand.
6. Inventory and working capital. Inflation changes the economics of inventory. High inventory carrying cost, combined with inflation-driven price increases in input costs, creates pressure to reduce stock levels — but this needs to be managed carefully against service level risk. The right response is not simply to cut inventory targets across the board, but to review the inventory policy by SKU based on updated demand volatility, supplier lead time reliability, and holding cost assumptions.
7. Energy cost management. For operations-intensive businesses — manufacturers, logistics providers, retailers with large cold chain operations — energy is a material cost that is worth active management. Procurement of energy contracts, investment in energy efficiency, on-site generation (solar), and demand management programmes all have payback periods that have improved materially as energy prices have risen.
Building a Sustainable Cost Management Capability
The organisations that manage supply chain costs best during inflationary periods aren't the ones that respond most aggressively to each cost increase — they're the ones that have built the analytical infrastructure to manage costs continuously.
That means: spend visibility by category and supplier, a procurement governance process that reviews supplier pricing increases against benchmarks, a cost-to-serve model that makes the economics of serving different customer segments visible, and a regular supply chain performance review that tracks costs against budget and against market benchmarks.
These are capabilities that pay off in inflationary environments — and continue to pay off when inflation moderates, because the discipline of cost management doesn't depend on external pressure to be valuable.
How Trace Consultants Can Help
Trace Consultants works with Australian businesses to manage supply chain and procurement costs in volatile operating environments.
Procurement cost reduction: We identify and deliver sustainable cost reduction across direct and indirect spend categories — typically achieving 5–15% savings on addressable spend within 12 months.
Supply chain cost diagnostics: We assess your full supply chain cost base, identify the most material cost drivers, and develop a prioritised programme of interventions.
Supplier negotiation support: We lead or support supplier price increase assessments and renegotiations — applying market benchmarks and procurement expertise to ensure organisations pay fair market rates.
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Ready to turn insight into action?
We help organisations transform ideas into measurable results with strategies that work in the real world. Let’s talk about how we can solve your most complex supply chain challenges.






